Will Indonesia's Haze Reach Phuket? What's Happening and What It Means for the Island

Retire In Thailand October 28, 2026

Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — If you've seen the pictures coming out of Sumatra and Kalimantan this week — orange skies, airports in the murk, whole cities breathing through masks — it's a fair question to ask from Phuket: is that smoke coming here? The short answer is: not now, and not this week. The honest longer answer is that the season isn't over, the fires are still burning, and Phuket has been caught by this exact smoke before. Here's what's actually happening, and what would have to change for the haze to reach the island.

Thick wildfire haze hanging over a Southeast Asian city during the 2026 Indonesian fire season

What's burning, and how bad is it?

This is one of Indonesia's serious fire years. According to the latest situation report compiled by the Muhammadiyah Disaster Management Center and published by ReliefWeb, forest and land fires have intensified across six provinces in Sumatra and Kalimantan, with 7,678 hotspots and 176 confirmed fire spots detected. Air quality in the worst-affected areas has hit the top of the scale — the pollution index (ISPU) peaked at 500, the maximum "hazardous" reading, in Kutai Barat, East Kalimantan.

The driver is a double whammy of climate patterns: a very strong El Niño (the Niño 3.4 anomaly is running at +2.83, which is about as strong as it gets) plus a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Together they've delayed the start of Indonesia's rainy season across 61% of the country, and Indonesia's meteorological agency BMKG doesn't expect peak rainfall until December 2026 to January 2027. In plain terms: the fires have weeks of dry weather left to burn in, unless the rain arrives early.

Indonesia is throwing everything at it — including, remarkably, aircraft scattering dry ice over South Sumatra in mid-October to try to break up the smoke layer trapped over Palembang, where visibility at the airport improved from 1,000 metres to 3,000 metres during the trial, according to BNPB reporting carried by BusinessToday Malaysia. When a government is experimenting with dry ice, you know the conventional tools aren't winning.

Where the smoke has actually gone — so far

Here's the important bit for Phuket: the smoke is on the move, but its confirmed path stops well south of us. BMKG analysis of Himawari-9 satellite imagery from October 25 shows transboundary haze spreading from Sumatra to the Malay Peninsula and Singapore, and from Kalimantan to Sarawak and the peninsula, drifting southwest to northeast. Malaysia and Singapore are copping it. Phuket, so far, is not on that map.

Why Phuket is clear right now

Look out the window. Phuket today is mid-deluge — light rain as we write, humidity at 96%, and an Air Quality Index of 31, firmly in the "Good" band, per weather.com's Phuket page. The same monsoon weather currently flooding our roads is also scrubbing the sky: rain physically washes particles out of the air, and the island's current airflow isn't arriving from the Sumatran fire zones. You cannot have a haze episode and a flood week at the same time — the weather that does one prevents the other.

Clear skies over a Phuket beach — the island's air is currently clean despite the regional haze

What could change it

Three things would have to line up, and none of them is far-fetched over the next two months:

  1. The fires keep burning. BMKG's own outlook says the real rain may not arrive until December–January, and the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre warns that while haze may ease as monsoon-transition rain increases in late October, the fire and cross-border haze risk persists, with El Niño expected to keep parts of Southeast Asia drier than normal from October through December.
  2. Phuket dries out. Once our rainy season lets go — normally right about now, late October into November — the daily wash-out stops.
  3. The wind swings southerly. A sustained flow up the Strait of Malacca, from Sumatra past Malaysia to Phuket, is the delivery route. That's the pattern that did it before.

And it has done it before. In October 2015, several of Thailand's southern provinces suffered a severe haze episode blown in from Sumatra, as noted in this PM2.5 guide to Thailand's smoke seasons. Anyone who was living here then remembers the milky sky, the burning smell, and the closed schools. 2015 was also a strong El Niño year — which is exactly the pattern we're in now.

What to watch, and what to do if it comes

  • Check the AQI before you plan the day. Air4Thai (the Pollution Control Department's app) and IQAir both carry Phuket readings. Right now we're at 31 — green and clean. If it ever climbs past 100, that's your cue to take it seriously.
  • If haze does arrive: PM2.5 is the pollutant that matters — fine particles that a cloth mask won't stop. Proper PM2.5/N95 masks are sold in every 7-Eleven and pharmacy on the island. Keep windows shut, run the aircon, and move the morning run indoors.
  • Visitors: a haze day here is an inconvenience, not a trip-wrecker — boat trips, viewpoints and beach sunsets are what suffer most. Flights are rarely affected unless visibility drops severely at the airport, which hasn't happened in past episodes.
  • Residents: if you have asthma or anyone elderly or very young at home, a small air purifier is the one purchase that pays for itself in a bad week.

The bottom line

Phuket's air today is clean, and the flood rain overhead is the island's best guarantee it stays that way this week. The watch period is November and December: fires still burning in Sumatra, our rain season ending, and one wind shift between us and a 2015 repeat. We'll keep an eye on the AQI and update this story if the smoke turns north.

Sources

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